MNS STATS iSuppli vFinal DR 18/12/08 10:35 Page 39
MICRONANOSYSTEMS
39
Solar wafer segment to
consolidate after 2012
PRICING FOR POLYSILICON used in ‘The dramatic variance in the ramp up Mounting supply chain problems come
PV cells is expected to drop in 2009 and rates of the polysilicon suppliers and at a time when the market is undergoing
the following years due to fundamental their PV cell customers will lead to rapid growth. Wafer based solar cell
imbalances in the solar supply chain, major supply chain imbalances,’ said operational production capacity will
according to iSuppli Corp. Global supply Henning Wicht, PhD, senior director and increase from 6.2 Gigawatts (GW) in
of polysilicon is expected to double in principal analyst, PV, for iSuppli. 2007 to 17.8 GW in 2010 and 27.5 GW
2009, while demand will grow by only 34 In 2007, more than 90 percent of in 2012, iSuppli predicts. However,
percent. The sharp increase in supply will polysilicon was supplied by only seven polysilicon production will rise even
cause polysilicon pricing to plunge in companies: Hemlock, Wacker, REC, faster, with production equivalent to 5.7
2009 after peaking this year. Tokuyama, MEMC, Mitsubishi and GW in 2008, to 19.4 GW in 2010 and to
Due to strong solar driven demand Sumitomo. However, more than 60 other 37.6 GW in 2012.
that arose in 2005, suppliers of silicon companies have announced plans to The decline in pricing and oversupply
and wafers have been able to dictate produce polysilicon by 2009. of polysilicon will benefit PV makers that
pricing and contract terms to customers ‘The PV supply chain is immature and buy the raw material. However, the pure
during the past three years. This situation inflexible, which will result in significant solar wafer market will become a less
hit a crescendo in 2008, with spot supply chain instability and waste,’ Wicht attractive business in the future.
market prices rising as high as $500 per said. ‘iSuppli estimates that more than ’The pure wafer business is a siren’s
kilogram, up from as low as $200 in 90 percent of the existing PV supply call,’ Wicht observed. ‘The wafer
2007. chain is characterised by fixed supply business today is driven by profitability
The corresponding wafer price rose to agreements that are incapable of that results from the disposing of scarce
$13 per piece and higher in 2008. adjusting to changes in end demand. supplies of polysilicon. Producing a wafer
However, the average price for Supply and demand will not be able to is not beyond either the polysilicon
polysilicon is expected to decline during maintain balance at the various nodes in suppliers or the cell producer. Eventually
2009, falling to as little as $200 per kg. the supply chain, resulting in substantial they will try to drain the profit out of this
With new competitors entering the swings in inventory and pricing over the level of the supply chain.’
market, supply will outstrip demand next two years, at which point polysilicon The solar wafer segment will undergo
starting in the beginning of 2010. Spot supply will exceed demand so much that consolidation sometime after 2012 after
market pricing is expected to decline to all contracts and sales channels will need polysilicon prices collapse completely,
as low as $100 per kg in 2010. to be redefined.’ iSuppli predicts.
December 2008 / January 2009
www.euroasiasemiconductor.com
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