Industry News
Dire analysis for 2009
40nm introduction
SEMICONDUCTOR and semiconductor The equipment revenues will be
for fusion
equipment markets are falling off a cliff worse in 2009 than in 2001 because of
(like the economy) and will mirror 2001, a paradigm shift in equipment memory
according to the report “The Global purchases.
Market for Equipment and Materials for A leading factor in the divergence
IC Manufacturing,” recently published between semiconductor and SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS has
by The Information Network, a New semiconductor equipment sales since announced that it has begun using
Tripoli, PA-based market research 2002 is the growth of the 300mm wafer 40-nanometer (nm) process
company. market. technology to produce an eight-
“Our leading indicators, which Our metrics also indicate that gigabit (Gb) Flex-OneNAND- fusion
accurately forecasts semiconductor Semiconductor sales will drop 32% in memory chip. Samsung’s Flex-
equipment inflection points, indicate 2009, the same as in 2001. OneNAND is a proprietary memory
that there will be no upturn through “We have been using these device that provides both SLC and
June 2009,” noted Dr. Robert N. indicators since 2000 and they have MLC NAND in a single chip. It has
Castellano, president of The Information proven to highly quantitative metrics in been designed for applications that
Network. “Moreover, we are forecasting every forecast we have given and in require high speed and high
a 41% decrease in semiconductor nearly every given year we have not had reliability in processing both code
equipment revenues, greater than the to change our forecast midstream,” and data content.
32% drop in 2001.” added Dr. Castellano. Applications using Flex-
OneNAND are expected to expand
from high-performance smart phones
Meanwhile ASPs rebound
today, to full HDTVs, IPTVs and other
high-end applications by year end.
By adopting advanced 40nm
IN a recent announcement IC Insights’ to say with certainty if IC ASPs have class technology, Samsung achieves
has recently reviewed January average reached their low points, but the an increase in productivity of up to
10
selling prices for several IC product company firmly believes that IC ASPs 180 percent over the first Flex-
categories and compared them to will rebound throughout 2009 and into OneNAND, a 4Gb device designed
www
prices in December 2008 and over the 2010. Several conditions are lining up on 60nm-class technology.
.eur past two years. The results produced throughout the industry that suggests Developed in 2007, Flex-OneNAND
oasiasemiconductor
some encouraging results. ASPs will begin to improve, perhaps incorporates SLC and MLC NAND on
ring6 Analog ASP up 10% compared to dramatically, in the coming months. a single piece of silicon, allowing
Dec ’08, the highest since Apr ‘07. Some factors that are expected to application designers to choose the
ring6 MPU ASP up 23% compared to Dec cause ASP increases include very low IC portion of SLC and MLC NAND
‘08, the highest since Sep ‘08. inventory levels at electronic system storage to be used in any particular
ring6 MCU ASP up 5% compared to Dec producers, any “uptick” in orders will design through a simple adjustment
.com
‘08, the highest since Jun ‘08. likely put upward pressure on prices; to the accompanying software.
ring6 8-bit MCU ASP up 22% compared to fewer IC suppliers due to mergers and Samsung has included software
Dec ’08, the highest ASP in over consolidation throughout the industry; to support a system level interface
square4
Issue II 2009
two years. 85% factory utilization at 300mm fabs for embedded memory, moviNAND
ring6 32-bit MCU ASP up 9% from 4Q08 during the current slow period; older, (or eMMC) in its 8Gb Flex-
average, the highest since Apr ‘08. 200mm factories being taken off line; OneNAND. This new feature allows
ring6 Logic ASP up only 2% compared to and dramatic reductions in 2009 capital handset designers to easily introduce
Dec ‘08, but first time above $2.00 equipment budgets. high-density embedded memory in
in over two years. These conditions suggest that even their next generation phones,
ring6 DRAM ASP up 5% compared to Dec a nominal increase in IC units will put eliminating the need to source
‘08, which was lowest point for upward pressure on prices. That additional software. As embedded
DRAM ASP in over two years. nominal increase could begin in 2Q09 memory can increase high data
ring6 Total Flash ASP up 11% compared to and accelerate in the second half of the transfer speeds, more high-end
Dec ‘08, the highest since Jun ‘08. year when seasonal demand for phones are expected to be
ring6 NAND Flash ASP up 17% compared electronic systems jumps. Although the introduced with from 1GB to even
to Dec ’08, the highest since in 2009 IC market is forecast to register a 32GB of embedded memory.
Jun ‘08. double-digit decline this year, IC FlexOneNAND reduces memory
ring6 Total IC ASP up 4% compared to Insights believes IC unit shipments, area on the printed circuit board and
Dec ’08, the highest four-week average selling prices and market improves performance by
month ASP since Nov ’07! growth will rebound in the second half diminishing transmission noise.
According to IC Insights it is too early of this year.
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