14
STATISTICS
iSuppli trims 2008 chip forecast
and sees warning signs for market
i
Suppli Corp. has trimmed its DRAM. iSuppli lowered its 2008
With companies
forecast for 2008 worldwide semiconductor memory revenue forecast
unable to get credit,
semiconductor revenue growth, but by 5.8 percentage points, and its DRAM
is warning of significant potential outlook by 5.4 points. With memory
the crisis could
downside if economic conditions continue expected to account for nearly 10% of
to worsen. Global semiconductor industry global semiconductor revenue in 2008,
spread to the wider
revenue is expected to rise to $280.1 this represents a major drag on global
economy, impacting
billion this year, up 3.5 percent from semiconductor revenue.
$270.6 billion in 2007. iSuppli’s previous However, iSuppli significantly boosted demand for
forecast, issued in August, predicted 4 its forecast for global Application
percent growth for the year. The attached Specific Standard Product (ASSP)
electronic equipment
figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of global semiconductors, compensating somewhat
and semiconductors
semiconductor revenue. The U.S. for the memory forecast downgrade.
Semiconductor Industry Association this iSuppli raised its 2008 ASSP revenue
month reported global semiconductor forecast by 3.2 percentage points for the market in September. PC demand
sales rose 5.5% in August compared to a year. ASSPs represent a broad category continued to defy the economic downturn
year earlier, indicating that chip sales of integrated circuit semiconductors that through the second quarter, and iSuppli
growth continues to track according to provide key functionality in all types of remains cautiously optimistic regarding
iSuppli’s expectations. However, signs electronic equipment, from mobile sales through the remainder of the year.
appeared in September that the handset base bands to hard disk drive iSuppli now holds a prediction of 12.5
semiconductor market may be feeling the controllers. percent growth in PC unit shipments in
impact of the credit crisis and economic However, new signs of weakness have 2008.
downturn. mounted in the DRAM market in recent However, iSuppli has noted some
The credit crisis is impacting the times. iSuppli in September cut its rating weakening in demand from PC makers
semiconductor market on several levels, of near term conditions for DRAM since the start of September.
said Dale Ford, senior vice president, suppliers to negative, down from neutral iSuppli will continue to monitor the
market intelligence, for iSuppli. The first before. Long suffering from a glut of DRAM and PC sector closely to see how
level is demand for electronic equipment parts, the DRAM market began to note a changing market conditions may impact
from the Wall Street firms themselves, weakening in demand from the key PC the overall semiconductor business.
which is expected to drop and thus
decrease demand for semiconductors. The
second level, and a much more significant
factor, is the impact on corporations in
general. With companies unable to get
credit, the crisis could spread to the wider
economy, impacting demand for electronic
equipment and semiconductors. The final
level, and the most significant area of
impact, is the broader effect on consumer
confidence and spending if the overall
economy collapses.
The DRAM drag
In its latest 2008 semiconductor forecast,
iSuppli has significantly downgraded its
outlook for memory revenue, particularly
Information kindly supplied by iSuppli
www.euroasiasemiconductor.com November 2008
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