to new, energy efficient models. I will continue to run my 13 year taxation or rationing, will not improve the general quality of life as
old 7 series BMW for precisely that reason – it is the greenest perceived by the individual.
option!
It will not add to the sum of human happiness. Two years ago the
Ultimately, this move will result in lower consumption emissions in Conservatives came up with the insightful initiative of making people
the long term but it will increase emissions in the short term. happier – our goal as a society should be increased happiness,
not the one dimensional march to perpetual economic growth.
It is said that the long term sustainable population of the earth
They were on to something because continuing improvements in
is limited to about two billion people living at current average
our well being are proving to be a poor correlation with, and hence
consumption levels in western Europe. The existing population is
an unreliable measure of, our overall happiness.
more than six billion and growing by 50 per cent every 100 years.
Sadly, since then nothing much more has been said on the
I don’t know how reliable this two billion estimate is but common
subject. Perhaps the Conservatives were just ahead of their time.
sense suggests there is an upper limit on the long term sustainable
Let’s hope so.
numbers of humans living comfortably on the earth and my
suspicion is that we’ve passed that limit already. So, any solution that focuses on happiness as opposed to blind
economic growth is going to recognise that people will continue
So far almost every nation, and pretty much most pundits too, are
to seek to enjoy the benefits of private transport over the public
in deep denial about this. The ‘business model’ of the UK economy
variety. The solution, in this regard, will therefore not be to restrict
depends on an ever increasing population. The same is true for
and punish car journeys but cater for them. Cater for them in a
the world economy. But, this just isn’t sustainable, so sooner or
way that makes the experience pleasant (fewer traffic jams) but
later there is going to have to be some pretty serious thinking, and
also reduces emissions. In other words, we need to find ways of
eventually political cowardice will have to be overcome and the harsh
powering our cars that come from genuinely renewable sources
truth dealt with – there are simply too many of us on this planet!
and do not result in a net emission of pollutants.
But, there are relatively gentle and painless ways of reducing
Similarly, working towards a lower global population can be
population, and hence consumption. These need to be long term
achieved through incentives too. But, these will need very careful
and require enlightened thinking in terms of GDP per capita instead
consideration. The first step is for society to stop rewarding
of overall GDP.
behaviour it doesn’t want and start rewarding behaviour it does
want.
The answer lies in incentives.
Sadly, this is a concept lost on governments. Most profess to want
We all know the power of incentives, or at least we think we do.
to encourage and boost enterprise. But these are empty words –
However, many of the eco friendly initiatives currently proposed
start or run a business today and the government seems to put
offer penalty and punishment rather than reward. There are two
in the way every possible obstacle. It has even reneged on its
aspects (at least) of human psychology that will form a fundamental
promise that a lower capital gains tax regime for entrepreneurs
part of any long term, sustained solution.
was here to stay.
The first is the reaction to a loss is far greater than gain of an
But, this is not the only challenge business faces for the future. A
equivalent magnitude. Give someone an extra day’s holiday and
lower population, which is probably the only real long term answer,
they’ll be grateful. But cut their holiday allowance by a day and
whether it comes in the next 100 years or the next 1,000 will mean
they’ll be furious. The extent of fury will far outweigh the gratitude
smaller markets.
in the other direction.
We too will have to change our business models. The number of
As long as eco initiatives offer short term disadvantages as part of
potential customers might be smaller but they will be wealthier.
the trade off they will remain unpopular.
The fewer people there are the fewer businesses there will be to
compete - and fewer shareholders to pacify.
The second is the need for a meaningful incentive. Not some
theoretical or altruistic benefit to future generations, but something
New technology will continue to provide productivity gains; that
that gives us instant gratification now. Something that stimulates
means we will need to employ fewer people.
the reward centres in our brains.
And, in closing, I want to leave one thought to ponder: what will
What does all this mean? It means that initiatives to get people
happen to the way we work and consume once we can build
to give up their cars for public transport are never going to work.
robots and computers capable of outperforming humans both
They can be imposed by banning the car, or using taxation to bias
physically and mentally? This might sound like something from
the economic advantage of public transport, but people will only
science fiction but eventually it will become science fact. That day
begrudgingly comply.
could be 50 or 500 years away, but it will come.
Imposing an involuntary reduction in consumption, whether by
With no jobs available then, we’ll all be entrepreneurs! n
ecoexecutive | 14
Acumen Business.indd 14 18/4/08 15:20:31
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