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Seasonal upturn imminent but soft demand through 2009
N American and European economic a 27% plunge in electronic equipment investment is now projected to drop
activity is ‘feeling the pinch,’ based shipments from October 2007 to February 22.4% in 2008 before rebounding in
upon recent industrial production growth 2008 (Chart 5). This year’s seasonal upturn 2009 and 2010.
(Chart 1). Although these country is now underway, but this past winter’s
growth values are quite volatile month-to- decline was especially sharp in Taiwan/ PCBs—modest growth
month, a ‘Western World’ deceleration is China. Computer motherboards follow the Printed wiring board shipments are growing
now evident. same seasonal demand pattern as electronic in SE Asia and N America (Chart 11).
Electronic equipment production equipment (Chart 6). However the current domestic upturn may
growth is slowing (Chart 2). While only be short-lived as again PCB growth has
Japan is currently in negative territory, Chip shipments, catch-up & then been playing catch-up with end market
Europe and N. America are decelerating slower growth? demand. Boards and equipment are now
and Taiwan/China is down substantially Semiconductor shipments provide a in balance.
from its +36.7% three-month growth peak measure of electronic assembly activity (Chart 12) is Custer Consulting
in October 2007. (Chart 7). Although some seasonal Group’s world PCB shipment model. A
In N America automotive sales have recovery is evident in all regions (Chart 8), seasonal upturn can be expected until
taken a real beating (Chart 3). However part of the recent ‘chip growth’ appears to about November, followed by a normal
industrial (non-consumer) electronic goods have been due to semiconductors playing post-holiday season decline extending
have enjoyed slow but steady growth in catch-up with electronic equipment. In into spring 2009. Looking forward, most
both orders and shipments (Chart 4). N America (Chart 9) chip and electronic prognosticators now feel that a recovery
equipment shipment growth is now in from our current global economic woes
SE Asia hit hard balance, so presumably the recent domestic may not occur until well into 2009.
In SE Asia a combination of increasing semiconductor growth spurt will diminish
costs, stronger currencies, bad winter soon. Due to modest chip demand, ample Market notes
weather and reduced export demand capacity and last year’s very robust Capex China’s economy is projected to grow
(especially of consumer electronics) caused spending by DRAM makers, SEMI capital at a slower annual rate of 10.4% in
20080710
20080630
Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment Producers
World Semiconductor Shipments
Composite of 101 Manufacturers
Monthly US$
NT$ (billions)
US$ Billions
600
30
-27%
Month
-16%
500
25
3-Month Avg
400 20
300
15
200
10
100
5
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
CALENDAR YEAR
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China
SIA
Chart 5. Chart 7.
20080710 20080630
Taiwan Motherboard Vendor Sales
Total Semiconductor Shipments to an Area
Composite of 21 Large Manufacturers Monthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
NT$ (Billions)
40 $B - 3-Month average
October peaks
12
SE
Asia
Japan
10
N America
30
Europe
Asia Pac
8
20
6
10 Asustek removed from historical data following 1/08 spinoff of 4
computer related (motherboard) business to Pegatron and
non-computer related business to Unihan Technology. Both
spinoffs are not reporting financials publicly. 2/14/08
2
0
5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9 111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9 111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0
CALENDAR YEAR
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5
Company Financial Releases 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Albatron, AOpen, Biostar, Chaintech, Diamond Flower, Elite Group, Epox, Flytech, Giga-Byte, ICP, Jetway, Keimei, Kinpo,
Leadtek, Microstar Intl, Mitac, New Era, Shuttle, Soyo, Tul, Universal Scientific SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
Chart 6. Chart 8.
www.globalsmt.net Global SMT & Packaging - August 2008 – 31
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