Global Solar Technology 1.2 - November/December 2008

Market conditions dim; brake lights ahead
help the current global crisis to fade Ionics EMS is assembling solar panels for US $36-million order for electrical systems,
faster than predictions, but just in case Solaria. equipment and related engineering and
demand stalls, the industry should use this project management services from LDK
period to manage capacity, control costs markets Solar for a new polysilicon production
and focus on core products and markets • Greentech startups raised US $2.8 plant in Xinyu City, China.
that generate the highest return on invest- billion in venture capital in the third Air Liquide Industrial increased prices
ment. quarter, more than double the second- for bulk oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen and
Send me an email at jon@ quarter total, with solar companies helium by 15%, carbon dioxide and dry ice
custerconsulting.com if you are interested in raking in US $1.5 billion. by 10% and argon by 20%.
learning more about the contract manufac- • China’s renewable energy industrial Amtech
turing industry or would like to follow the sector’s investments topped 12 billion • achieved US $100 million total book-
solar/ photovoltaic industry with Custer US dollars for its projects in 2007. ings milestone in fiscal 2008 with 70%
Consulting’s Daily News. of total bookings from solar.
Here are some recent news headlines materials & process equipment • solar subsidiary, Tempress Systems,
from our Daily News. • Global market for solar cell placement, received a US $7.5 million follow-on
contract manufacturing & assembly post-processing production equipment solar order for its diffusion processing
Flextronics is expected to expand from 20 billion systems.
• leased a 155,520 sq.ft. building in yen a year to 400 billion yen in 10 Applied Materials
Morgan Hill, CA, to manufacture solar years.—Nisshinbo • CEO Mike Splinter said that solar
panel parts. • Solar equipment sales are expected to equipment business could make up as
• industrial segment created a global grow to $100 billion in five years—but much as 25% of its sales in 2009, up
team dedicated to advanced solar solu- an industry oversupply will come soon- from about 10% in 2008.
tions. appointed Robert L. Edwards to er and prove greater than expected. • set up Asia Operations Center in
board of directors. —Lux Research Singapore.
ABB received
20081018 20081024
Grid-Connected Forecast
Taiwan vs. U.S. Dollar
MWp
25,000
Investment models (PPA in USA) are driving grid
connected market growth.
21,577
Exchange Rate NT$/US$
36
20,000
In Europe, these models allow for system owners to
profit from system ownership.
35
Market in Europe, at >70% of total demand, is more
+1.1% Weaker
15,000
mature than that of USA. 2007 vs 2006
34
From 2002 to 2007,the grid-utility market has grown
12,302
at a CAGR of 110%, with installations primarily into
33
10,000
Spain.
From 2002 to 2007 the commercial market has 32
grown at a CAGR of 116%, again primarily driven
5,000
by installations in Europe.
31
2,763
39
338 30
0
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 911
1997 2002 2007 2012 (Conserv) 2012 (Accel) 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Total Demand 114 505 3,073 12,844 22,143
Grid-Utility 4 10 387 2,214 3,884 CALENDAR YEAR
Grid -Commercial 7 33 1,520 6,151 10,788
Grid-Residential 29 296 857 3,937 6,905
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/15
Navigant Consulting, PV Services Program 10/08
Chart 7. Chart 8.
20081024 20081024
Euro vs. U.S. Dollar
Copper, High Grade (HG, Comex)
$4.50
Exchange Rate US$/euro
1.6
Strongest Euro vs. US$ ever
$3.50
1.4
$2.50
1.2
1
$1.50
0.8
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 911
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 $0.50
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
CALENDAR YEAR
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/15
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/
Chart 9. Chart 10.
14 – Global Solar Technology – November/December 2008 www.globalsolartechnology.com
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