Title
Jon Custer-Topai
Market conditions dim;
brake lights ahead
Bigger, cheaper, more efficient
The solar industry appears to be mirroring recently implemented feedstock tariff pro-
the electronics industry by about fifteen
“Concern and caution
grams similar to Spain and Germany.
years in growth and operational structure. Secondly…
The electronics industry roadmap is driven
may be needed during
The polysilicon shortage (Chart 1) will
by ‘smaller, cheaper, faster,’ whereas the
these uncertain times
continue to ease in 2009. It appears that
solar industry is following the direction of there will be ample supply in 2010, as sup-
‘bigger, cheaper and more efficient.’ The
now that oil prices have
pliers ramp up capacity to meet demand.
installations and panels are growing larger, And now the sobering news...a tighten-
prices are becoming lower, and solar PV
returned from their
ing credit market is making it harder for
efficiency rates continue to climb.
summertime high of
consumers to finance installations and for
But in order to reach the holy grail of manufacturers to expand capacity. Venture
“bigger, cheaper, more efficient,” the in-
US $147.”
capital resources have dried up (Chart 2)
dustry will have to add capacity and lower and recent IPOs are non-existent.
manufacturing costs, and businesses will Changing economic conditions could
have to operate more efficiently. Competi-
ning January 2009, a revised, eight-year
affect the ‘sexy’ solar industry on both the
tion in technologies, applications and
U.S. solar investment tax credit program
demand and supply sides, and it appears
processes are becoming more evident. The
will be instated that provides commercial
that the solar industry’s expansionary
global economic market is both increasing
and residential consumers with a 30%
period may take a breather. Lux Research
risk and creating opportunities.
tax credit (without the US $2000 cap or
forecasts that the solar industry will grow at
Market conditions are changing…first
restrictions) towards solar installation pur-
a 27% annual rate from US $21.2 billion
the bright side…
chases including large-scale utility projects.
in 2007 to US $70.9 billion in 2012 (Chart
World governments have been creating
In addition, several European countries,
3). Pre ‘financial crisis’ growth has been
incentives to increase solar demand. Begin-
including Italy, Greece and Austria, have
impressive. A revenue composite of 21 pub-
20080809 20081015
Global Polysilicon - Supply & Demand
Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist
Tons (000)
200 Confidence Index
Production Index (5=high confidence, 1= low confidence)
5
Demand
The quarterly Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Confidence Index is based on an on-going survey of
150
Shortage
San Francisco Bay Area/Silicon Valley venture capitalists. The Index measures and reports the
opinions of professional venture capitalists in their estimation of the high-growth venture
4.5
entrepreneurial environment in the San Francisco Bay Area over the next 6 - 18 months.
100
4
50
3.5
0
3
2.5
-50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
04 05 06 07 08
CALENDAR YEAR www.usfca.edu/sobam/nvc/pub/
QY Research 12/07
CALENDAR YEAR
Chart 1. Chart 2.
12 – Global Solar Technology – November/December 2008 www.globalsolartechnology.com
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