SE Asian upturn, softness in Europe—No major disasters on horizon
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
SE Asian upturn, softness in
Europe—No major disasters
on horizon
Global GDP growth continues to slow way. • Dell reportedly has delegated purchas-
(Chart 1) with Western Europe and North Since the industrial production (Chart ing rights of thermal-dissipation mod-
America the main culprits (Chart 2). Fortu- 2), monthly semiconductor shipment ules to its contract suppliers in Taiwan,
nately the electronics industry is generally (Chart 7) and monthly electronic equip- including Quanta Computer and
outperforming the general economy. ment production (Chart 6) are the most Compal Electronics. Previously Dell
In 2Q’08 all sectors of the electronic timely data, it would appear that SE Asia totally handled the whole supply chain
food chain (except SEMI CAPEX) per- is in a mild recovery, but the other regions of components for its notebook PCs.
formed well vs. the same quarter in 2007 are facing challenges. ACW Technology added nearly £1.75
(Chart 3). Although electronic equipment Chart 8 is Henderson Ventures’ most re- million in new equipment in 2008.
makers (Chart 4) and EMS companies cent electronic equipment growth forecast AdoptSMT acquired AlternativeSMT UK.
(Chart 5) reported slower second quarter by region for 2006-10. Conclusions: Axiom Manufacturing Services (South
growth, both sectors still remained solidly • 2008 – slow growth, no recession Wales) invested £500,000 in new machinery,
in positive territory. • 2009 – turnaround year including a Fuji AIM SMT line, NUTEK
Looking at recent electronic equipment • 2010 – “recovery” laser etching system and Takaya fixtureless
production growth by region (Chart 6), flying probe test system.
only Japan is in negative territory. Based eMs, ODM & related assembly Catalyst Manufacturing Services inte-
upon semiconductor shipment growth as activity grated Aegis’ manufacturing operations
a measure of electronic assembly activity • Vietnam’s EMS/ODM revenues are software.
(Chart 7), SE Asia has “turned the corner” expected to grow at a CAGR of 63.1% Compal Electronics is building notebook
and is expanding again while N America, from 2007 to 2012 to reach US$1.5 PC plant in Brazil following rising costs in
Europe and Japan are headed the wrong billion by 2012.—In-Stat China.
20080907 20080912
Industrial Production - World
Real Global GDP Year-to-Year Growth Rates
% Change vs. One Year Earlier
5.0
Qtr 4-Qtr Moving Avg
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
06 07 08
Henderson Ventures 9/08
Economist 9/2008 http://www.economist.com
Chart 1. Chart 2.
26 – Global SMT & Packaging – September 2008 www.globalsmt.net
Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56