FEATURE
IS THE FUTURE GREEN?
It is impossible to know exactly what the
Predicting the future is a perilous affair.
future holds, but we can make informed
Remember back to when you were a kid and
guesses about what will be important, and
the kind of things we could expect. At Forum what you thought the future would be like.
for the Future, we advise some of the biggest
companies in the world on sustainable
So, who today is wearing rocket boots, eating
development, and how they should prepare
meals in tablet form or living on the moon?
for the future. Here is a taste of what I think
will unfold over the next two decades. greater stress than today, and many will But this could change if it doesn’t have the
Climate change is one of the most have collapsed. desired effect. We could we see certain types
important factors shaping our future. The Supplies of fresh water will be at a of products simply banned, or heavily taxed,
world will get warmer, sea levels will rise, premium, with 2.8 billion people in 48 as has happened with tobacco over the past
and we can expect more instances of countries facing water stress or scarcity decades. There’s some evidence that the
extreme weather conditions, including conditions by 2025. public might welcome such ‘choice editing’,
storms, floods, heat waves and drought. There will be more people, not just or even some form of carbon rationing.
As the science and the effects of climate globally, but also here in the UK. Our Managing our resources wisely and
change become ever clearer, governments population, having reached 60 million in ensuring they are used as efficiently as
will set tougher targets. The aim will be to set 2005, could be as much as 65 million by possible will be a key part of resolving the
us on course to ‘decarbonise’ our economy. 2025. Much of the growth will come from conundrums that face us. Facilities, buildings
Assuming the UK economy grows by 2% per continued immigration. This brings and energy managers can obviously make a
annum, we will need to cut the UK’s carbon economic opportunity, but also the threat of big contribution here.
intensity by a whopping 50 per cent in the more congestion, more competition for land, Looking at what the future holds, I
next 15-20 years. and more pressure on existing infrastructure think that by getting ahead of the game on
How will we achieve this? Regulation will and resources. sustainability, you will not only put yourself
clearly play a role, with carbon trading Ranged against these trends – fewer in a better position job-wise, you can also
taking the lead, perhaps even for resources, more people, greater demand – help the secure the planet for the
individuals. The effect of all this will be to will be the ability to which we can innovate, generations to come.
further increase the cost of energy, at time plan differently and change behaviour. Peter Madden is Chief Executive at
when prices are already rising due to Technological development will continue Forum for the Future – the sustainable
growing competition for diminishing supplies apace. Computers will be very much more development charity, working with
of conventional oil and gas. Oil prices are powerful in 2022 than they are today – business and the public sector to deliver a
likely to rise far above their current level. perhaps by as much as a thousand times. sustainable future.
By 2020, we will have changed our Countless tiny computers with significant www.forumforthefuture.org.uk
energy system. Some experts suggest we processing capacity will be linked by mega-
will move to a localised grid, linking up bandwidth wireless networks, ushering in the
small-scale generation from solar, wind era of the ubiquitous ‘always on’ internet.
or biomass sources, reducing the need to
invest in big new power plants driven by coal
or uranium. “technologies could help
Traffic congestion will grow and
measures to combat it – intelligent transport
systems, road-pricing or higher fuel taxes –
provide answers to our
are inevitable. Attitudes to aviation are
changing, and will feed through to tighter environmental challenges”
regulation and fiscal measures, such as a
Peter Madden
levy on aviation fuel. Despite this, air travel is We can also expect rapid developments in a
predicted to continue growing quickly. range of different areas of technology, from
Meanwhile countries everywhere will nano-materials with new properties and
need to invest in making infrastructure and new, more efficient ways of producing and
activities more robust to withstand the storing energy, to robotics, artificial
environmental impacts of climate change. intelligence, medicine and genetics. R&D in
Over the next 20 years, the Earth’s 2007 is already focusing heavily on these
natural resources will certainly become areas. Handled correctly, these technologies
scarcer. There will be less wilderness and could help provide answers to our
we may well have seen the extinction of environmental challenges.
some iconic species such as white rhinos or We will also need to see changes in
snow leopards. Forests will be under behaviour. Our lifestyles need to become
acute pressure from clearance for more sustainable. The government’s current
agriculture – unless their value as carbon approach is broadly restricted to providing
sinks has earned them a reprieve. Marine information and incentives to encourage this,
fisheries around the world will be under even such as nutritional and carbon labelling.
SUSTAINABLE FM | OCTOBER 2007 13|
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