OPINION
In this section: 33 John Curtice | 34 Jim Sillars | Henry McLeish | 36 Keith Aitken | 37 Shona Main |
Opinion
JOHN CURTICE
johncurtice@holyrood.com
Proceed with caution
T
he result in Glenrothes may not for the SNP not because of any mistakes Meanwhile, the opinion polls also
have been predictable, but the re- they themselves have made, but rather suggest a more sober assessment of the
action to the eventual outcome certainly because of the improvement in Labour’s impact of the banking crisis on sup-
was. As I anticipated in my column in reputation across the UK as a whole. port for independence and on Mr Sal-
the last issue of Holyrood, defeat for the Indeed, at 29 per cent, the SNP’s lat- mond’s personal popularity. Two polls
SNP was widely greeted as evidence est Westminster poll rating is still as much that assessed support for independence
that the party’s honeymoon is now over, as eleven points up on the party’s tally in before the crisis have subsequently asked
thanks, above all, to the fallout from the 2005. Meanwhile, with leads of eight and the same question again. One found
banking crisis. three points, the Nationalists still have a support for independence down by three
However, using by-elections to inter- bigger lead over Labour in Scottish Par- points, the other by four – a setback for
pret the mood of the nation should always liament voting intentions than they actu- the SNP but not a calamity.
be undertaken with caution. Local factors ally secured in the ballot box in 2007. Equally, the proportion nominat-
peculiar to the particular constituency or But why should we believe these ing Alex Salmond as the best person to
contest can always produce an odd result. polls? After all in Glenrothes, SNP sup- be First Minister has fallen a little – by
And there is every reason to believe local port was actually down by seven points three points. But he still leads Iain Gray
factors were important in Glenrothes. on its vote across the whole of the West- by no less than 38 per cent to 13 per
Labour were able to exploit increases minster seat in 2007. The answer lies in cent. Overall, the SNP would still fancy
in charges in homecare and emergency the two local by-elections. their chances of winning again if there
alarms introduced by Fife Council. And One of these was in the Forth ward were to be a Scottish Parliament election
of course, the constituency was very much in Edinburgh, the other in Ballieston in tomorrow.
in Gordon Brown’s backyard, and voters Glasgow. In Forth there was nearly a 2 per But that does not mean that Mr Sal-
may well have been reluctant to give the cent swing from Labour to the SNP since mond can dismiss Glenrothes as a little
local lad a beating. 2007, in Ballieston a 4 per cent swing – local diffi culty. Nearly twelve months
The result was certainly rather at just the kind of fi gures we would expect ago, I argued in this column that the
odds with the message of both the opin- if the SNP are indeed still in a somewhat SNP’s tax-cutting budget opened up
ion polls and two local by-elections that, stronger position than last year. At the a potentially fruitful line of attack for
as it happens, also took place on Novem- same time, the result in Ballieston, where Labour – by painting ‘the SNP as a party
ber 6. True, these do suggest Labour’s unusually a by-election was also held that is selling their country’s traditional
position is not as dire as it was in the just six weeks ago, confi rmed that there concern for equality down the river’.
summer when it lost Glasgow East, and has been a swing back to Labour from Labour fi nally realised that opportu-
that its recovery has been at the Nation- the SNP since the summer - but, as we nity in Glenrothes. The circumstances
alists’ expense. But they cast doubt on would anticipate from the polls, only of there may have been particularly propi-
the claim that the SNP is less popular the order of 4 per cent. tious, but unless the SNP can fi nd a way
than when it won last year. of defl ecting this line of attack in the
In the summer the SNP were ahead
HOLYROOD.COM OpINION pOLL
coming months, then Glenrothes could
of Labour in the polls, not just in vot- indeed have signalled the beginning of
ing intentions for Holyrood but also for WE asked: Do you think private schools should be . . . the end of its honeymoon.
Westminster. That is something that had And of course, statistics are one thing,
not previously happened since the 1970s.
YOU voted:
mood and morale quite another. Glen-
But now after a 5.5 per cent swing back
BANNED 42.6%
rothes has certainly changed the latter.
to Labour, the Nationalists are trailing
Allowed to remain as charities 30.3%
For the fi rst time, the SNP Government
Made more widely available 17.6%
again. Intriguingly, this switch back to
Encouraged 9.5%
looks vulnerable and the opposition parties
Labour parallels a similar movement from may well now feel emboldened to give it a
the Conservatives to Labour south of the Check out the latest opinion poll at
www.holyrood.com harder time. That may well prove to be the
border. This suggests life has got tougher real message from Glenrothes. HM
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www.holyrood.com | Holyrood magazine | 17 November 2008 |
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