Title
Jon Custer-Topai
Solar growth provides
opportunities for electronics
makers
The solar industry has been referred as duction versus the solar photovoltaic panel Composite financials of 14 solar/
the new gold rush. Many of the same industry global growth (Chart 2), the OEMs photovoltaic panel makers (Chart 4) show
companies that serve the traditional (end markets) expanded 11% in 2Q’08 recent steep growth in revenue, income
‘electronics food chain’ are now finding vs. 2Q’07 while solar was up a whopping and inventories. Q2’08 quarterly sales were
solar to be a safe haven from a slowing in 155%. Revenues for the global photovol- up 123%! A composite of 13 Taiwan-listed
their traditional markets. Increased energy taic industry (Chart 3) are expected to grow solar/PV manufactures (Chart 5) shows
demand in developing countries (especially from US $22 billion in 2007 to US $70 a similar expansion pattern (68% growth
China) coupled with political unrest in billion in 2012, according to Lux Research. between 2006 and 2007).
the Mideast has driven up oil prices (Chart The European Photovoltaic Industry
1). Higher petroleum-based energy costs Association (EPIA) believes that global
coupled with heightened global ecological “Comparing electronic production of solar photovoltaic cells will
awareness have accelerated the commer-
equipment production
grow from 3,600 MWp in 2007 to between
cialization of alternative energy sources 7,220 MWp (Chart 6, pessimistic scenario)
the development of energy efficient new
vs. solar PV panel
and 10,900 MWp (Chart 7, policy-driven
products.
industry global growth,
scenario) in 2012. EPIA & Greenpeace
These market changes have created new published a paper in late 2006 that out-
opportunities for ‘traditional electronics’
OEMs expanded 11%
lined a vision of one billion people world-
including OEM, EMS & ODM companies, wide being supplied with solar electricity by
component & process equipment suppliers
while solar was up a
2020. To accomplish this, the industry will
and distributors.
whopping 155%.”
need to continue to expand capacity.
Comparing electronic equipment pro- The shortage of polysilicon (Chart 8)
20080719
20080809
Spot Oil Prices - US$ & Euros Electronic Equipment vs Photovoltaic Panel Revenues
W Texas Intermediate Crude
Price/Barrel
Quarterly Global Growth
150
140
US$
130
Euros
$ Growth vs same quarter in prior year
120 240%
Elec Equip Photovoltaic
110
220%
100
200%
90
186%
180%
80
165%
70
160%
157%
154%
146%
60 140%
123%
50
120%
40
100%
30
80%
20
10
60%
0
40%
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 20% 8% 10%
12% 14% 12% 10%
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
0%
1 2 3 4 1 2
CALENDAR YEAR 07 08
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/oilprice
www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx
Custer Consulting Group 8/08
Chart 1. Chart 2.
12 – Global Solar Technology – September/October 2008 www.globalsolartechnology.com
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