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06
Politics
RUSSIA BEYOND THE HEADLINES
BOOKMARKS www.nato-russia-council.info/htm/EN NATO-Russia Council
SECTION SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA, RUSSIA
eng.karaganov.ru/bio/ S.Karaganov's official website
www.kremlin.ru/eng/articles/ConstMain.shtml Read Chapters 4 and 6
WWW.RBTH.RG.RU
of the Russian Constitution
From a Kremlin Foreign Policy Ambassador pins hope on
Insider
renewed NATO-Russia dialogue
"Though they have long worked
together as a team, Putin and
Medvedev are different people
with different styles. And, come
Zero Hour
May, Medvedev will be the
head of state. It will be Med-
vedev who will be determining
the international policies of the
What’s in Store for the
Russian Federation, enjoying
the full scope of the presidency
in accordance with the Russian
Bucharest Summit?
Constitution."
Dmitry Peskov
VIKTOR VASENIN_RG
Deputy Press Attache to President Putin
From an interview with the TV channel Russia Today With relations between makers are. For the time
www.russiatoday.ru/guests/detail/1009
Russia and NATO at a low RBTH Dosier being, Georgia and Ukraine
President Putin’s Last Summit:
point, this April’s NATO- are below NATO’s standards
Russia summit in Bucharest Born in 1963 into the family of for candidate members. In-
NATO and Russia in Romania
has acquired particular a famous Soviet military histo- viting these countries to the
significance. Ahead of the rian, Dmitry Rogozin graduat- alliance would also sharply
What Russians
summit, Russia’s ambassador ed from Moscow State Univer- destabilize the internal polit- It was initially unclear whether ternational issues. Since then,
to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, sity in 1986 with a degree in ical situation in both and lead outgoing President Vladimir Pu- the differences between the two
can Expect
spoke to RBTH to explain journalism and later complet- to a degradation of their tin would accept an invitation to sides have only widened.
Russia’s approach to the ed a PhD in philosophy. statehood. attend the NATO-Russia summit Particularly, NATO’s continued
Can Russia Take a
major issues of global, and In 1993, Rogozin joined the If Georgia joins NATO, it in Bucharest in early April eastward expansion, deploy-
European, security and “Congress of the Russian will have to accept the loss 2008. According to his Foreign ment of bases in Bulgaria and
Softer Line?
President Putin’s decision to Communities,” a nationalist of a considerable part of its Minister, however, Putin’s deci- Romania and speculation about
attend the summit. political organization created territory, particularly after sion to do so “once again testi- the admission of Georgia and
to promote the rights of ethnic the precedent set by Kosovo. fied to the country’s commit- Ukraine have stoked Russian
SERGEI KARAGANOV
NADEZHDA SOROKINA
Russians living in the former Neither Abkhazia nor South ment to dialogue on all interna- suspicions about the alliance’s
MOSCOW Soviet Union. In 1997, he was Ossetia – which have both tional issues.” true intentions.
DEAN OF THE WORLD ECONOMICS
AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
elected to the State Duma as a unilaterally proclaimed their In reality, relations between Relations were further strained
FACULTY, STATE UNIVERSITY – Although Vladimir Putin agreed deputy from the city of Vo- independence from Georgia Russia and NATO during the Pu- when the United States de-
HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
to take part in the upcoming ronezh. In parliament, he be- – is going to join NATO. tin presidency have been far clared its intention to deploy el-
NATO-Russia summit, the back- came famous for speaking out Ukrainian society is strong- from easy. ements of a missile defense
ground for dialogue is not par- for the rights of ethnic Rus- ly divided on NATO mem- However, few remember that shield in Eastern Europe.
ticularly favorable: Kosovo’s sians in former Soviet Union bership. Furthermore, the di- things actually got off to a good The recent unilateral declara-
declaration of independence republics. vision between supporters start nine years ago, when Mos- tion of independence by Kosovo
from Serbia, America’s nego- Rogozin is widely known in and opponents is primarily cow declared itself ready to co- has only exacerbated existing
Russia’s new President is reluctant to re- tiations with Poland and the Russia as the former leader of geographic, which may operate with the alliance on in- tensions.
veal his foreign policy, perhaps leaving it to Presi- Czech Republic on the deploy- the nationalist party Mother- threaten Ukraine’s state-
dent Putin, one of the most experienced global ment of a missile defense shield land, which won 9.2 percent hood.
political players around, for now. So far, the main (ABM), and speculation about of the vote in the 2003 parlia- I’m sure that these facts are
tenets of Dmitry Medvedev’s platform have been NATO’s possible admission of mentary elections. well known in NATO. I don’t portant player in world pol- What does Russia expect from
domestic and economic: Russia will be committed Ukraine and Georgia. In January 2008, Rogozin was think there are any hotheads itics, and it cannot be the NATO summit in Bucharest?
to further modernization, partial liberalization of I know that Putin is confi- appointed Russia’s represen- in the alliance who would like ignored. We expect a very serious di-
the economy, investment in human resources and dent in the weight of Russia’s tative to NATO. to see political destabilization If European Union coun- alogue. We are hoping that
renunciation of state capitalism. In foreign policy, arguments on these issues, in Europe. tries agree on a unified ap- NATO will explain its current
this implies conserving efforts and avoiding open and he is going to express proach and NATO crosses policy. We will raise the issues
confrontation with other major powers, except on these views at the summit. How will Russia respond to the boundaries of its UN of Kosovo, the Treaty on Con-
fundamental issues. In short, it means following There will be discussions on the American system could NATO expansion? mandate, the two organiza- ventional Armed Forces in Eu-
the path already forged by China. key security issues, which will not threaten our interests. We We do not understand why tions will clash with the rope and the American ABM
Domestic commentators, afraid of striking a dis- include the problem of the have not yet received a suf- the alliance is expanding, and United Nations in a conflict system in Europe.
cordant note, have toned down their anti-Western U.S. missle defense shield, es- ficient answer from the Unit- Russia will certainly react to that will involve not only Russia has accepted its in-
rhetoric. Foreign commentators have also been pecially concerning the tar- ed States regarding either the admission of Croatia, Russia-NATO relations, but vitation to the NATO sum-
generally positive. gets of American radar and possibility. Macedonia and Albania. On the entire global security sys- mit despite Kosovo’s recog-
By the same token, Russian liberals and those missile interceptors. We must We can understand why the other hand, this expan- tem. nition, differences on the
engaged in business have argued that confronta- also keep in mind that the re- our American partners feel sion does not directly affect ABM shield and many other
tion with the West is economically damaging and percussions of Kosovo’s dec- unable to make reasonable our national interests. Is “fair play” possible in di- issues. Regardless of all this,
should be abandoned. A softer line could also laration of independence will decisions on the ABM issue, plomacy, or does “might make President Putin has decided
be discerned in a speech delivered in Munich by still be felt after the summit at least not before the forth- Russia-NATO relations have right”? Which option will the to go to Bucharest.
Sergei Ivanov, once Medvedev’s main rival for the starts. coming presidential elections. been strained because of world choose? We consider it very impor-
presidency. But I’m amazed at the Euro- Kosovo. How has this affected There will always be clash- tant to be able to explain
Although the Russian political classes have hardly How will the ABM problem af- pean position. The U.S. ABM joint Russia-NATO programs? es of opinion. What matters Russia’s position on the most
mentioned Ivanov recently, he will undoubtedly fect Russia’s cooperation with system in Europe will pose a These joint programs are here is whether we can over- urgent issues face-to-face.
be one of the key figures in the country’s future NATO? Are all members of the direct threat to them. Dam- not of a strictly military char- come these conflicts diplo- We are hoping for a serious
leadership. alliance unanimous about its age from nuclear warheads acter. Some of them are de- matically, or slide down the and detailed discussion of all
So the future President has pledged to stay the deployment? exploding over Europe would voted to general problems slope to confrontation. I favor the problems of global secu-
course, but to soften it a bit. And today Russia can NATO members are hop- be hundreds of times worse such as cooperation in the af- diplomatic methods. rity.
-
afford to take a softer stance. In recent years, its ing that this issue will be set- than that of the Chernobyl termath of emergencies and
prestige and leverage have rocketed out of pro- tled in the framework of U.S.- disaster. natural disasters, countering
portion to its real economic weight and military- Russian cooperation. Russia’s drug trafficking and terror-
political potential. The West has yet to live down position is clear – it wants one Do you think NATO countries ism, to name a few.
FURTHER READING…
its own sense of weakness and strike at Russia’s of two options. Either we es- will develop a membership ac- There can be no doubt that VLADIMIR LUKIN / Russia’s ombudsman for human rights
newfound assertiveness and drive. tablish a joint ABM system tion plan for Ukraine and Geor- our cooperation with NATO RUSSIA’S GLOBAL ROLE AND EUROPEAN IDENTITY
The EU has no Russia policy, but it is anxious to in Europe, based on Ameri- gia? Will this take place at the on these levels will continue
Russia in Global Affairs, No. 1, January - March 2008
prove through its dealings with Russia that it does, can, European and Russian summit in Bucharest? Or is it to develop. As German For- eng.globalaffairs.ru
after all, have a coherent foreign and defense research and design, which likely that NATO will limit itself eign Minister Frank-Walter
policy. This makes it likely that any concessions would provide a security um- to what it calls “intensified di- Steinmeier said – and with ROUNDTABLE
on Moscow’s part will be seized upon, but not brella over the whole of Eu- alogue”? good reason – there can be RUSSIA’S STAKE IN KOSOVO
reciprocated. This is not to say that there are no rope; or, alternatively, guar- Everything depends on how no security in Europe with-
Russia Profile / Experts’ Panel, February 29, 2008
avenues to be explored in the European direction. antees that by its very design rational NATO’s decision- out Russia. Russia is an im- www.russiaprofile.org
If that were true, Russia would face a prolonged
period of semi-isolation from the cradle of its own
civilization, Europe.
This is all the more reason to dramatically inten-
sify European policy. If concentrated efforts are
Rule of Law ex-Minister exonerated
applied, things could well bear fruit within a few
years. However, this will only happen if Brussels
overcomes its insecurity, sheds its illusions about
a single European policy and realizes that a stra-
After Ten Years,
Tune daily to
tegic alliance with Russia is crucial if it is to avoid
being sidelined as a geopolitical and economic
entity by the booming powers of Asia.
It is probable that the new Russian President will
Charges are Dropped
The Voice
of Russia
be cajoled, pushed and even provoked into mak-
ing concessions, especially if he does not imme-
diately soften the country’s foreign policy. He will The 1990s was a tumultuous The so-called “Vavilov case” ber of the Federation Council
have to be firm enough not to appear weak, while and, for many Russians, was at one time a defining (the upper house of parlia-
calm enough not to slide into confrontation and frightening time. Rule of law story in Russian politics. After ment), a permit to file a suit
02.00–04.00 (UTC): 6240, 7250, 13735 kHz
hostile rhetoric. took a back seat as political occupying the post of Deputy against him was required from
02.00–06.00 (UTC): 12040 kHz
The best that can be expected from the new interests took control of the Finance Minister from 1992 the Federation Council.
President’s foreign policy is constructiveness and commanding heights of the through 1997 — no small feat Oddly, however, the cur- 03.00–06.00 (UTC): 6155, 6240, 7350,
initiative, but these have so far been conspicuous Russian economy. Russian for a top-ranking official in rent General Prosecutor never
by their absence. Indeed, they have been for some politicians were themselves the stormy 1990s — Mr. presented the case to the Fed-
12010, 12030 kHz
time. While the outgoing administration managed not immune from the Vavilov spent the next ten eration Council despite re-
04.00–06.00 (UTC): 7150, 9840, 9855 kHz
to change rules of the game it did not like – and shockwaves of transformation. years facing the prospect of ceiving both the Supreme
gained Russia more influence and prestige – it The case of Andrei Vavilov, criminal prosecution. The es- Court’s formal consent to ad-
did not actually offer an alternative of its own. But whose ten year prosecution sential allegation was that he dress the Federation Council
an alternative is urgently needed in relations with was finally dropped this year, misappropriated money allo- and the latter’s invitation to
Europe and with the United States. Unless one is still serves as a reminder of cated to Mapo-MiG fighter jet do it.
found, the “constructive cooling” that Russia initi- those bygone years. development. One of the reasons for doing
ated may degrade into a bitter winter of systemic Mass media dubbed the af- so was that the Council was
confrontation.
KIRA IVANOVA
fair the ‘Vavilov case.’ How- obliged to study the factual
Turning points in policy have been declared, but MOSCOW ever, no charges were ever background, which in turn
so far few turns have been taken. For example, filed against Mr. Vavilov; he was likely to reconfirm the
Russia does not have a consistent economic On March 5 — and in such was only a witness in the pro- conclusion a previous Gener-
strategy with regard to Asia. We may soon find an understated way that it was ceedings. Three years later, the al Prosecutor made back in
that because of this we have missed important not picked up by most media General Prosecutor’s Office 2000 (i.e. that there was no
opportunities. outlets — a decade-old saga declared the investigation into corpus delicti). Indeed, the
Finally, the new president, who will take control was brought to an end. By Mr. Vavilov’s case closed due General Prosecutor said this
of a stronger and more confident Russia, can af- publicizing their wish to for- to “the absence of any evi- in his speech before the Fed-
ford to be merely polite with the outside world, mally drop prosecution of dence of the crime.” eration Council.
concealing, for now, any not-entirely-justified ar- criminal case No. 8/171843- In 2006, however, the case The case was suspended
rogance. 97, the Investigative Commit- was reopened, possibly — as until the 10-year term of lim-
But perhaps most importantly, Medvedev will take tee of the Russian General some observers commented in itation finally expired.
the reins of power at a time when a distinct scent Prosecutor’s Office put to rest the Russian press — the re- By dropping the case once
of conflict hangs over the world. The overarch- any thoughts that any incrim- sult of a Machiavellian ma- again, the prosecuting author-
ing task of the new leader of one of the world’s inating evidence should have neuver by his opponents. ities have lifted Mr. Vavilov
most influential countries is to ensure that such been presented against Vavilov, At the time, since Vavilov from suspicion and closed yet
devastating conflicts are never given a chance to the former Russian First Dep- enjoyed immunity from pros- another epic chapter of post-
develop – or if they do, to keep Russia out of them. uty Finance Minister. ecution as a senator and mem- Soviet politics.
-
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