IIp29_Internaxx.qxd 23/3/09 17:11 Page 3
Market research | 29
Market research
from Internaxx
This section is brought to you by the
Luxembourg based online broker Internaxx.
Equities shake the blues for the surge in fixed investment resulting from the Internaxx Top ten buys and
moment (source: Fortis Investments) government’s stimulus programme boosted sells –International Investors
For most of the past week, now familiar driv- imports. This actually looks more positive than Activity summary from
ers dogged equities: weak economic data, a developments in Germany and Japan, where Internaxx
worsening profit outlook, dividend cuts and trade surpluses are being corrected mainly The 2008 Top Ten buys and sells are measured
breaks below technical support. Markets through falling exports. as the total number of trades carried out in
cheered after a leaked Citigroup memo said it The US index measuring confidence in the each stock by Internaxx clients over the previ-
was profitable in January and February and services sector fell in February, but it is still ous year. This report is not a recommendation
expected a good quarter. The reaction illus- well above the record November 2008 low. to buy or sell these stocks.
trates the nervousness of investors. Small news Mortgage delinquencies surged in the last
items can have large effects. The memo lacked quarter of last year to the highest since the
details and we are far from convinced that US series began in 1979. In February, 651,000 jobs
Top 10 February 2009
financials have passed the trough. were lost and the numbers for the two previ-
Markets may be bottoming as investor ous months were revised down by 161,000.
Top 10 Buy Top 10 Sell
expectations become more realistic, sentiment The jobless rate shot up from 7.6% to 8.1%.
nears the lows and credit markets perk up. Rising unemployment leads to rising loan
1 Bank of America Bank of America
Other factors point to an end of the bear mar- delinquencies and reportedly unemployment
ket such as low valuations, global monetary has already reached the average for the year 2 Citigroup Citigroup
easing and stabilising commodity prices. But it used in several stress tests of bank balances.
is too early for the all-clear. Many signals are Japanese machine tool orders improved in
3 General Electric General Electric
still flashing red: negative earnings surprises February, but from low levels. The Economy
continue to depress the markets, loan delin- Watchers index improved for the second
4 Fortis Arcelor Mittal
quencies have continued to rise and the US car straight month. This was strongest in the com-
5 Axa Fortis
and housing markets have not improved. And ponent measuring the outlook. This fits in
we have not seen any breadth in market with a stabilisation or improvement trend in
6 Arcelor Mittal Barclays
advances for many months. We have left our global leading indicators.
asset allocation unchanged. We are under- The Bank of England embarked on quanti- 7 Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank
weight in equities, but by a relatively small tative easing on a massive scale. This is a huge
amount due to the high uncertainty. gamble. No one knows if it will work and the
8 Palm Palm
January’s data showed that export-depend- inflation risks are enormous, especially since
ent economies continued to suffer from the inflation has already been stickier in the UK
9 Barclays BNP Paribas
global recession. German exports fell by due to the depreciation of sterling.
10 BP Royal Bank of
almost 20% yoy, imports by just over 10%. The Investment Joost van Leenders
Scotland
trade surplus plunged from a 2008 average of specialist investment strategy
almost EUR 15 billion a month to EUR 8.5 bil-
lion in January. Exports from Japan almost DISCLAIMER
halved in a year’s time, imports fell by 33%. This document has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to
Chinese exports plunged by 25.7% yoy, buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or any invest-
imports by 24.1%. From a peak at USD 40 bil- ment advice. Prospective investors should conduct such investigations as deemed necessary and should
lion in November, the trade surplus slid to seek their own legal, accounting and tax advice to determine independently of the suitability and conse-
USD 4.8 billion in February. It is possible the quences of an investment.
Chinese New Year distorted the numbers. A
www.investmentinternational.com March 2009 Investment International
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