control calculations, stability booklet, stability calculations. Estonian authorities would not concur and allowed vessel to sail.
Meeting with Mr John Graffman, Program Manager of VINNOVA and Members of SNAME Forensics Panel SD-7 There was a meeting on September 19 2005 with select members of Panel SD-7. Mr Graffman discussed the study to be done on the loss of Estonia. The Panel members voiced concern that the wreck needed to be accessed and photographed as part of any investigation to the cause of sinking. On September 20 2005 Mr Graffman
attended Panel SD-7 Presentation of Paper, “Marine Forensics, Historic Shipwrecks, Determination of Root Cause,” at the Oceans 2005 Conference in Washington, DC. After the paper presentation he attended a Panel SD-7 Meeting at the headquarters of Phoenix International in Landover, Maryland where he outlined the study that VINNOVA intended to conduct. SNAME Panel members included: William
H Garzke, Jr Chairman; Kenneth Smith, ESI; Richard Fiske, former Supervisor of Salvage, USN; Robert Dulin, Sparta; F Gregg Bemis, Jr; Owner of Lusitania, Steven Saint Amant, Phoenix International; William Cleary, Naval Architect; Philip Sims, NAVSEA; Siu Fong, NSWC, Carderock; Charles Young, Phoenix International; Bruce Johnson, Consultant.
Determination of the Circumstances of a Ship Casualty Incident • What happened (ship sequence of events, environmental conditions)
• Survivor testimony (including new interviews)
• Chain of decisions and events • Time line • How the accident chain was set up • Records and reports • Recorded data • Pictures • Drawings and specifications • Cargo manifest • Examination of Trim and Stability Book • Simulation to determine sensitivity of list from humans aboard and cargo shifts
• Condition of bilge and ballast system • Lifesaving equipment • Examination of visor (Already recovered) • Re-examination of recovered metal samples
• Possibly recovery of additional metal samples near bow.
Panel SD-7 Conclusions on Proposed Study: • Survivor testimony in JAIC report is inconclusive.
• Estonia could not be classed as a passenger ferry in Holland, France, UK, and the Mediterranean for short international voyages.
• The Estonia wreck needs to be thoroughly examined and photographed. A study of the wreck will assist in how the accident chain was set up.
• A photo mosaic of the wreck needs to be done.
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• State of internal water tight closures (down flooding paths).
• Fault tree analysis needs to be done to determine all sinking possibilities.
• The choice of one event in the fault tree analysis without confirmation from a shipwreck survey is unsatisfactory. This was done in JAIC Report.
• A thorough study of lashing gear used in the ship to secure vehicles is a necessity. Stresses set up in lashing gear due to ship motions need to be examined and the possibility of a cargo shift.
• The cargo manifest and vehicle locations need to be thoroughly examined.
• State interference of not allowing access to the wreck could be overcome with government presence during wreck survey.
• The car deck and bow ramp needs to be surveyed and photographed.
• Any new study not based on a detailed forensic study of the wreck that also
includes an exhaustive photographic analysis and ship internal observations is meaningless, inconclusive, and a waste of money.
In January 2006 it was announced that two research studies of the sinking sequence will be funded by VINNOVA. By using computer simulations and model testing the research results will provide ideas of how to improve maritime safety for passenger ships. The projects will be going on for approximately two years. One consortium will be coordinated by SSPA
Sweden AB in Gothenburg, Sweden, with partners being the Ship Stability Research Centre at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, MARIN at Wageningen and Chalmers University, Department of Shipping and Marine Technology in Gothenburg. The second consortium will be coordinated by HSVA at Hamburg. Their other partners are Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg and the company TraffGo HT in Duisburg.
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