04
Opinion
RUSSIA BEYOND THE HEADLINES
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Find more on the elections in Russia in 2007-2008
Live Journal
MOSCOW’S MORATORIUM
Real Election Question No Longer "Who For?"
But "What For?"
WHEN ADVERTISING BILLBOARDS ARE DOMINATED BY RUSSIAN FLAGS,
ON CFE TREATY
ROARING BEARS AND BOLD POLITICAL STATEMENTS IT CAN ONLY MEAN
ONE THING IN RUSSIA: POLLING DAY IS AROUND THE CORNER. AND WHILE
MARKETING OF DECEMBER'S STATE DUMA ELECTIONS HAS NOT YET
REACHED THE WEB IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WAY, COMMENTS ABOUT THE
SERGEI OZNOBISHCHEV
MOSCOW
ELECTIONS ARE DOMINATING THE RUSSIAN BLOGOSPHERE.
A moratorium on the Treaty on Con-
The result of the election is not it would be better were there a ventional Forces in Europe (CFE) is
in much doubt – a resounding credible challenger to the rul- a result of a decision that Russia
victory for Putin's United Rus- ing United Russia party. Users should base its relations with the
sia party is practicaly certain – like navikula claimed it to be a West on a foundation of principle. In
but bloggers have nonethe- reason for voting in itself: "I will simpler terms, Russia has finally de-
less been busy discussing vote, because I don't want our cided to get tough in defending its
whether and why they will be country to have a one-party interests. It seems the hope in Mos-
voting. system". L_isa_veta took a cow is that by taking such drastic
Now that the opportunity to more long-term view: "I will measures to address its own secu-
vote against all candidates no vote because I don't want to rity concerns, it will prompt the other
longer appears on voting give my vote to the United participants in the European pro-
forms, many cyber-writers are Russia that will have a majority cess to continue to promote military
determined to sit on their anyway and because if we security in Europe. But this can only
hands in protest: "I will not go don't to take part even in happen if Russia’s voice is heard.
because I lost my right to vote strange elections without real President Vladimir Putin’s speech
against everyone” (madluna) choice then we won't achieve in Munich, in which he lashed out
and “since my constitutional anything democratic in the against U.S. foreign policy, was a
DRAWING BY DMITRY DIVIN
right to vote against everyone long run." prelude to the current develop-
was taken from me, I will not piki_s was driven by a desire ments. In what was primarily an at-
go to vote. I don't like any of to establish a traditional two- tempt to make the West listen to
the parties or candidates. It will party system drove : "I will go what Russian policymakers and ex-
be a waste of my valuable and vote for the Communists, perts are saying, he bluntly said in Moldova (Transdnestr) since So- Romania and the Baltic countries. and package deals in order to per-
time" (kokota) The mislead- because in developed coun- that NATO’s eastward expansion is viet times. But not everyone can afford to follow suade its partners to ratify the up-
ingly named cowardly_knight tries there are always two main a huge concern for us (an idea that Although the legal link between this logic – military experts, diplo- dated treaty.
took a harder line still, arguing parties that compete for au- has been voiced since the Gor- these two documents and the modi- mats and lawyers have to be guided By declaring that its suspension of
that “the Duma has always thority and it is not important bachev era), that the ABM Treaty fied CFE Treaty was very dubious, by military balance figures and con- the treaty is just that – a temporary
been and remains a feeding what they are called as long as (from which the United States uni- Russia went a long way in its coop- tractual provisions until they receive moratorium on provisions of the trea-
ground for those who like com- they understand their depen- laterally withdrew) is a cornerstone eration with Georgia and Moldova to other signals or documents from po- ty and its relevant documents, in-
mercial lawmaking and is fully dence on the voters." of strategic stability, and that we are withdraw troops and weapons. This litical leaders. cluding the restrictions on conven-
controlled by the President." Russia's democracy is certain- very sensitive to the development effort could not be completed for rea- This vision of the world contradicts tional weapons, inspections and
The exitement of casting a ly unique. Bloggers had clear and deployment of new weapons sons beyond Russia’s control, like the partnership proclaimed by Rus- information exchange, Moscow
vote for the fist time did, how- views on how it should change. systems. Being well aware of these clouded bilateral relations. sia and NATO – yet it is the duty of leaves the door open for a return to
ever, appear enough incentive Whether they vote or not may concerns, our Western partners policymakers to eliminate contradic- the treaty. Having exhausted other
for younger voters to exercise have some say on whether took unilateral steps without bot- tions. methods of persuasion, an exasper-
their democratic right. “These they are eventually heard. hering to inform, let alone consult, This shows that Russia was not happy about the ated Russia is trying to send a signal
are the first elections in my life Russia.
and I want to express my will”
THE RUSSIAN BLOGOSPHERE HAS
partnership with the
plans to deploy a U.S. missile shield to the West.
ALMOST TRIPLED IN 12 MONTHS.
They refused to ratify the modified
said aivengo_am_i. “I will ex-
United States is fragile
in Alaska and missile defense ele- Russia’s actions in the future will de-
THESE SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN
CFE Treaty (that is, the second ver-
press my will for everyone si- TAKEN FROM RECENT POSTS sion of the original CFE Treaty
and that deterrence is
ments Europe. This shows that part- pend on many domestic and exter-
nership with the United States is nal factors, and it is not possible to
multaneously, because there
ON THE SPECIAL COMMUNITY SET
signed in 1990) concluded at the still going strong. fragile and that deterrence is still foresee how they will develop. But I
is no political force that I cur-
UP FOR THIS NEWSPAPER,
HTTP://COMMUNITY.LIVEJOURNAL.
OSCE summit in Istanbul in 1999 going strong. In much the same for one would like to hope that any
rently trust". One expat from
COM/OPINION_RU
because of Russia’s bilateral agree- manner, the deadlock with the up- steps taken by either side will ade-
Austria also expressed her in- AND COMPILED BY MARINA ments with Georgia and Moldova. Refusing to ratify the modified treaty dated CFE Treaty demonstrates the quately reflect the diminished level of
tention to vote, claiming it
PUSTILNIK.
Importantly, under these agree- for eight years, the Western coun- true value of partnership with military threat in Europe, and pave
would help her feel “a little part ments Russia has not made any tries have blocked the implementa- NATO. the way to a real partnership.
of Russia" (ekatorina) commitment to withdraw weapons tion in Europe of its revolutionary The Moscow-imposed suspension The negotiating experience sug-
The vast majority of Russian and military units from either repub- provisions, which for the first time is not an extreme measure. It has gests that only the political will of
bloggers who plan to go to the lic’s territory. The joint Russian-Geor- were founded on bloc-free princi- not unilaterally walked away from it statesmen can bring about early
booths on December 2 believe gian declaration merely mentioned ples. At the same time, NATO’s ex- as Washington did from the ABM compromise and effective arms con-
that during 2000, the sides would pansion has formally increased its Treaty. trol agreements. Without that, the re-
complete talks on the terms and pro- military potential, exceeding the Recently, Russia has amassed duction and elimination of conven-
cedures for the operation of Russian group restrictions of the still-valid some weight in the world arena and tional forces in Europe is unlikely to
Poll Results
military bases in Batumi and Akhal- 1990 treaty. is becoming more confident and ec- be a feasible goal.
-
kalaki, and Russian military facilities Needless to say, it would be odd for onomically stable. It would be great
on Georgian territory. In the case of Russia to be seriously worried about if it could afford not to resort to de- Sergei Oznobishchev is the Director
A Hero of Our Time
Moldova, Russia promised to con- a higher level of military threat after marches. It could instead exploit the of the Strategic Assessments Insti-
sider the question of weapons stored NATO admitted Poland, Bulgaria, potential of economic diplomacy tute.
AS WE PUBLISH THE RESULTS OF THIS VTSIOM (ALL-RUSSIA PUBLIC
OPINION RESEARCH CENTRE) OPINION POLL, WE HOPE IT WILL HELP OUR
READERS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND “THOSE ENIGMATIC RUSSIANS” AND
THE CHANGES UNDERWAY IN RUSSIA. FOR ALL REFORMS, AS THE SAY-
ING GOES, START IN THE HEART AND SOUL BEFORE THEY SPREAD TO
POLITICS AND THE ECONOMY
IMPORTANT ELECTIONS
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING CHARACTERISTICS FITS YOUR IMAGE OF A
RESPECTED AND WORTHY PERSON TODAY? (UP TO FIVE RESPONSES)
1997 2007
%%
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 ple who approve of the United Rus-
Decent, living according to his conscience 53 57
sia’s performance increased by five
A good family man 46 45
According to the Russian political percent in the same period; the rat-
Tolerant to other people 40 38
schedule, parliamentary elections ings of other political parties had zero
A professional with a high level of proficiency 34 37
are closely linked with the presiden- growth.
Law-abiding, respecting and living by the laws 14 34
tial ones – by law, the presidential During 2007, young people aged 18
Good listener, sympathetic, helping other people 36 26
race starts several days after the to 35 accounted for 93% of the in-
Enterprising, capable of organizing his life 24 26
State Duma elections, which are not crease in the United Russia sup-
Educated, well-bred 27 25
viewed as a major event. The Rus- porters.
Patriotic, placing the interests of the homeland before his own 15 24
sian political tradition gives priority to The youth factor has become anoth-
Having convictions, defending his citizenship 15 20
the presidential elections. er feature of the current election
Believing in God and trying to live by His Commandments 11 16
This is a subject that worries many campaign owing to the analysis of
Well-off, with good income 11 15
Russians. Public opinion polls show the Orange Revolution in Ukraine
A modest laborer, not striving for glory and honor 22 9
that voters are very concerned over (credit for which primarily goes to the
Gifted, talented 14 9
Vladimir Putin’s departure – in the young generation) and the height-
Possessing power, connection, influence in society 8 8
last few decades, his popularity rat- ened attention of the pro-govern-
ing of over 70% has been the highest ment forces to the young in the last
SOURCE: WWW.WCIOM.RU
among all Russian political leaders. few years. The United Russia has
Over 60% of Russian citizens would become the main beneficiary of this
The most important change of The higher the respondent’s welcome a change in the constitu- attention.
the past ten years is a new re- education the greater impor- tion, allowing Putin to be re-elected Politicians did not previously target
spect for the law. More fre- tance he attaches to proficien- for a third presidential term. But Putin younger age groups in their cam-
quent references are made to cy (22% for persons with un- is adamantly against changing the paigns. The most active group of
patriotism, civic responsibility, finished secondary education constitution for this purpose. More- voters was pensioners, and spend-
piety and following the Com- versus 44% for complete and over, having headed the United Rus-
DRAWING BY DMITRY DIVIN
ing effort and money on campaign-
mandments. incomplete higher education), sia party list since early October, he ing among young people seemed
Unfortunately, held in smaller culture and education (18- will take part in the parliamentary to make little sense. It would be in-
respect today are kindness 29%), the spirit of enterprise elections, making them more mean- Now only the United Russia and the The changes in the national party teresting to see whether this tradi-
and compassion, modesty and (14-28%), firm convictions ingful than ever before. Communists are going to make it, system in the last few years have pro- tion will change in December.
hard work, and talent. (10-22%), and reckoning with There is a number of other factors with the rest hanging in the air. duced an interesting political phe- Yet, the main feature of the Duma
Professionalism today matters others’ opinions (33-40%). that make these elections special. In the 2003 elections, we watched nomenon. The official opposition’s elections is Putin’s participation.
more to men than to women There is an inverse relation- The 2007 elections are exclusively the oligarchs fight each other to get total weakness has led to the grow- Many believe that it has altogether
(41-34%), and similarly the ship with kindness (36-21%) based on the proportional rather than their candidates into the Duma. Now ing role of the so-called exogenous changed the nature of the December
spirit of enterprise (29-24%), and modesty and industry majority pattern. Hence, only people this is practically impossible; it is no opposition – politicians and whole 2 vote. De facto, the current elections
and a firm civil stand (22-18%). (13-7%). The contrast is es- associated with parties are in a posi- longer easy to buy parties, either. movements that are taking an active have already turned from a proce-
Women, on the other hand, pecially striking with integrity tion to get into the Duma. There are no oligarchs in politics any part in the political process without dure of forming the parliament’s
have greater appreciation for (67% against 55-57%). The minimum percentage of the more but it remains to be seen how forming a political party for the elec- lower chamber into a vote of confi-
integrity (60-54%), domestic Well-to-do respondents attach vote needed to get a seat in parlia- much civil society has gained from tions. dence for Putin. While increasing the
virtues (50-40%), tolerance greater importance than low- ment has been raised to seven per- the changes. However, there is al- These elections have an absolute role of the elections, this factor har-
(41-35%) and piety (21-11%). income groups to the spirit of cent, which has reduced the num- ready a noticeable reduction in the favorite: the United Russia. Public bors a certain risk.
The elderly value life according enterprise (35-17%), profi- ber of parties capable of making it to number of scandals linked with the opinion polls show that it is no lon- Importantly, whether we like it or not,
to the Commandments (24% of ciency (43-31%), high in- the Duma. In 2003, the lower 5% names on the party lists. Moreover, ger perceived as a party of bureau- this is how the majority perceives
60 years of age and older, ver- comes (18-10%), talent (13- barrier was no problem for the Unit- public opinion polls show that the crats. these elections.
-
sus 10% in the 18-24 age 7%), and social contacts and ed Russia, the Communist Party voters acknowledge the presence of In the estimate of the Public Opinion
group), just as life in accord with influence (12-6%). The situa- (KPRF), the Liberal Democrats real politicians at the top of party lists Foundation, the United Russia elec- Kirill Tanayev is the general direc-
one’s conscience and not in tion is reverse with integrity (LDPR), the Rodina bloc, the Union – people respected for their work in toral rating has gone up by six per- tor of the Fund for Effective Policy
pursuit of pleasure and financial (48-61%), kindness (20-34%), of Right Forces (SPS) and Yabloko, the former deputy corps. Before, cent – from 26% in January to 32% in (Moscow), an influential think tank,
gains (72-45%), and modesty piety (10-21%) and hard work while the Agrarians and the Party of these lists primarily included local or late July 2007 (the start of the elec- which is linked with the Russian
and hard work (12-6%). (5-16%). Pensioners balanced on the edge. party bosses. tion campaign). The number of peo- Presidential Executive Office.
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