ANALYSIS
as they know they will be the ones that loose share
In the second half of 2010, PV panel
first. Second, through long-term agreements and
pre-payments cell manufacturers bound
revenue is set to return to strong
themselves tightly to silicon and wafer supply.
growth as the demand picture
In our opinion it is not likely that the solar industry
will change its rhythm of volume production in the
improves, some weak players are
short term. Which will lead to the huge oversupply
we forecast for 2009 and 2010.
eliminated and price declines slow.
The sun also rises By this time, demand will be fuelled
In the second half of 2010, PV panel revenue is set
to return to strong growth as the demand picture by additional installation capacity
improves, some weak players are eliminated and
price declines slow. By this time, demand will be
fuelled by additional installation capacity, improved
rates of internal rates of return due to low panel We have assumed the elastic impact of the
prices and renewed and extended government economic downturn to be muted. Capital spending
incentives to combat the economic slowdown. will be reduced, debt financing will become more
iSuppli predicts panel revenue will rebound in 2010 difficult, and people will hesitate to lock up capital
and rise to $17.8 billion, up 38.2 percent from for a twenty-year, long-term solar commitment—no
2009. Revenue will rise by another 11.1 percent in matter what the price.
2011 and by 29.1 percent in 2012.
Demand from the three main market segments will
39
Demand Elasticity have different application patterns between thin
In the event that PV system demand gets further film and crystalline modules . As previously
www
stimulated by lower module and system prices as mentioned, crystalline and thin film modules differ
.solar
well as by expanded government incentives to from each other through the characteristics of
counter the global economic crisis, we have efficiency and production cost.
-pv-management.com
created an Upside Elastic scenario to complement
a Most Likely scenario. Thin film is better suited for large areas, whereas
crystalline is used in many variations in all market
The Most Likely scenario indicates that a total of segments. A realistic view is that in 2009, 25% Fig. 2 Demand
4.2 GW of PV systems will be installed in 2009 and additional demand can be created through scenarios across
that the Elastic Upside scenario assumes a total of decreasing module prices. In this case, market market segments
6.0 GW. revenue could rise by 15.7 percent in 2009.
Issue I 2009
As an example of the impact on the economics of
lower prices, if module prices drop by 30% and all
other components by 10%, then the ROI for a PV
investor will increase from 4.7% to 7.9% in the case
of a 5-kW installation in Germany.
In the Elastic Upside scenario, demand would
increase between 25%-50% per year for residential
and commercial roof segments. Demand for
ground installations will react slightly slower with
only 20% increase per year. For 2009 the Most
Likely demand scenario assumes 4.2 GW of
installations and 6.0 GW for the Upside Elastic
case. Likewise, 2010 demand would rise to 9.0 GW
for the optimistic case versus 6.4 GW for the most
likely case.
REFERENCES
2 Installations in 2008 for Spain are estimated
preliminary at 1,1 GW.
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