lead to higher Chinese refined production and exports.
Overall,GFMS-MCisprojectingthemarkettobeinasurplus
London2008
of 86,000 tonnes in 2008 and 77,000 tonnes in 2009. Our
average annual price forecasts for these two years are
US$2,210/tonneandUS$1,765/tonnerespectively.
1 – 3 December, 2008
Business Design Centre, London
WillTinRevisitHistoricalPeaks?
Compared to most of the other base metals, tin has
escapedtheworstravagesofthesub-primecrisis.Itsbull-
Now in its sixth year, Mines and Money 2008 in London is recognised as
ish underlying fundamentals – lower Chinese exports,
the most notable and prestigious mining and f_i nance event in Europe,
where signif_i cant partnerships and deals are established.
uncertainty over growth in Indonesia, limited production
growthoutsideoftheseregionsandlowLMEinventories
Mines and Money 2008 will bring together some of the most inf_l uential
–haveprovidedgoodfundamentalsupport.Followingits
decision-makers within international mining companies, the
investment community, governments and professional services.
peak of US$25,500/tonne in early Q3, tin has trended
lower on the back of a minor deterioration in one of the
The event’s format is extensive incorporating a conference programme
fundamentals. The market however has not totally been
showcasing corporate presentations which will provide an in-depth
insight into investment opportunities; an exhibition hosting over 200
immunefromthesectorwidecorrection.
companies from exploration, mining and associated industries, and an GFMS-MCis projecting a deficit of 8,000 tonnes this
Outstanding Achievement Awards Dinner.
year. We envisage tin to average US$20,765/tonne in
2008,asaconstantstreamofbullishnewsisrequiredto
sustaininclosetothebullmarketpeak.Thiswillproveto
Exhibitors include:
be very difficult, given the strengthening of the dollar
andtheeasingofthephysicalmarket.For2009,wefore-
Adriana Resources Frontier Mining Pacif_i c North West Capital
African Eagle Resources Gemf_i elds Pebble Creek Mining cast the market roughly at balance. Increased mine
African Queen Mines Geodex Minerals Pelangio Mines
Africo Resources Gippsland Playfair Mining capacity will filter through to higher refined output,
Aker Solutions Golder Associates PMI Gold
Alex Stewart Group GRD Minproc Prairie Downs Metals
which should see inventories accumulate marginally. As
Allied Gold Gryphon Minerals PricewaterhouseCoopers
ALS Laboratory HansonWesthouse Proactive Investors
such, we project an annual average price of
Ambrian Heemskirk Consolidated Proto Resources and
AMEC Heron Resources Investments
US$18,000/tonnein2009.
Amur Minerals High River Gold Randgold Resources
Anglesey Mining Homeland Energy Reservoir Capital
Apex Minerals IMC Rockwell Diamonds
Apogee Minerals Indo Gold Sacre-Coeur Minerals
Zinc:ConcentrateSurplusUnderminestheMarket
Arian Silver Indophil Sandvik Mining and
Ariana Resources Innov-X Systems Construction
Zinc’s underperformance following early cycle highs in
Artemis Resources Integra Mining SAS Global
November 2006 has not been the result of weak demand,
Atomic Minerals International Wayside Gold Scott Wilson Mining
Aura Energy Mines Serabi Mining
whichisonlyarecentphenomenon,butwasduetoconcerns
Aviva Corporation Investec Bank SGS
Bateman Engineering JSE Silver Lake Resources over soaring concentrate output. According to the latest
Beak Consultants Kef_i Minerals Silverstone Resources
Behre Dolbear Kopane Diamonds Snowden data by ILZSG, following growth of 5.8% in 2007, global
Calderwood Han Developments Societe Generale
Capstone Mining Lara Exploration Solomon Gold mineproductionroseby9.2%to4.82mtonnesinthefirst
Castillian Resources Latin American Minerals Southern Mapping
Centamin Egypt Liberty International Mineral SRK Consulting
fivemonthsoftheyear.Increaseshavecomefromvarious
Central Sun Mining Lithic Metals & Energy Standard Bank
Cluf_f Gold London Metal Exchange Starcore International Mines
expansionsfromChina’sHebeiHua’aoMining’sCaijiaying
Conduit PR Lydian International Stellar Diamonds
Conroy Diamonds and Gold Mano River Resources Stratex International
lead-zincminetotheSanCristobalmineinBolivia.Weare
Continental Precious Minerals Maptek/KRJA Systems Sunridge Gold
Copper Fox Metals Marengo Mining Takara Resources
also assuming that supply concerns at a number of large
Copper Minerals Mariana Resources Tanzanite One
CSA Global Martin Place Securities Petaquilla Group
operations in Australia have been resolved. GFMS-MC
Diamonex Maxwell Data Shed The Resource Group
Discovery Metals Mayer Brown International Thermo Scientif_i c Niton
expects the increase to mine output (+6.9% in 2008) will
Donner Metals Metallum Resources Analyzers
boost refined zinc production over the remainder of 2008
E + PC Engineering & Projects Midlands Minerals Thomas Weisel Partners
El Nino Ventures Mindoro Resources TiRex Resources
and2009.
EMED Mining Mineral Resources Authority of Tournigan Energy
Emerson Moore Geosciences Papua New Guinea Troy Resources
GFMS-MC forecasts a surplus in 2008 of around 200,000
Encom Europe Ministry of Energy and Mineral TWP Consulting
Equinox Minerals Development, Uganda US Silver tonnes.However,givena4.6%improvementindemand,this
Ernst & Young Moly Mines Vector Resources
Esperanza Silver MSA Geoservices Vulcan Resources surpluspositionwilldeclineslightlynextyear.Weforecasta
Etruscan Resources Nedbank Capital Wardell Armstrong
Euromax Resources Neptune Minerals Wardrop Engineering surplusof176,000tonnesin2009.Theincreaseinthelevelof
European Goldf_i elds Nevoro Western Areas
Excalibur Mining NGM Resources Western Metals
treatment charges, the low level of physical premiums, plus
Exco Resources NKWE Platinum Westminister Resources
Fasken Martineau Stringer Saul North American Tungsten Wild Horse Energy
the rise in LME inventories, point to zinc being in adequate
Ferrous Resources Northland Resources Wolf Minerals
Firestone Diamonds Ormonde Mining Xemplay Energy
supplyrightalongtheproductionpipeline.Overall,thisshould
First Quantum Oroco Resource Yellowhead Mining
Freegold Ventures Oromin Exploration Zambezi Resources
putacaponpricesfortheremainderoftheyear.Wearefore-
castinganaverageannualpriceofUS$2,100/tonnein2008
andUS$1,875/tonnein2009•
For further information about exhibition opportunities
at Mines and Money 2008, please contact Pablo Martin,
on: +44 (0)20 7216 6063 or at:
pablo.martin@mining-journal.com
ShairazAhmed,MetalsAnalystwithGFMSMetalsConsulting.
www.minesandmoney.com/london
E:
shairaz.ahmed@gfms-metalsconsulting.com
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