COMMODITY PROSPECTS
self-reinforcing, as economic theory suggests they would be, so that sion,complicatedandcompoundedby
theimpulsetowardstrongergrowthandgreaterconsumptionislikely the structural weaknesses in the inter-
togainstrengthratherthanlosemomentuminthelong-run. national economy – including the
Inthisenvironment,thecurrentslowdownindemandforcommodi- massive US budget and trade deficits
tiesandtherecentshort-termspikedowninpricesshouldbeseenas as well as the enormous amount of
interruptionstoalonger-term,multi-yearupwardtrend. debt that has built up in the US econ-
omy.Furthermore,theprobabilitythat
It Could Go Wrong one should assess such a more
Weearlierdiscussedthefactthateconomicconditionsandtrends destructive alternative scenario is
overthepast25yearshavebeenlessvolatilethanatanytimesince higher than it would have been at any
at least 1800. This is true, and overall this more stable economic point since 1982.
growth continues. Within the context of such reduced volatility, The reasons a more severe recession
however, things have worsened over the past few years. While eco- appear unlikely is that these structural
problems are manageable and are off-
When the current economic slowdown ends ...
set by other factors, suggesting that
individual market fundamentals will probably point the current recessionary period will be
to strong demand and higher prices.
contained and will be followed by
strongerrealeconomicgrowth.
nomic conditions remain relatively stable compared to pre-1983 However,thereareforcesintheglobal
patterns, present economic trends have become more volatile, and economic and political spheres that
thepredictabilityoffuturecoursesofeconomictrendshasbecome could upset this outcome and reverse
less certain than they had been since 1982. This volatility in eco- the past quarter century’s progress
nomictrendsisbeingreflectedinincreasedfinancialmarketvolatil- towardmorestableandconsistenteco-
ity–andincommoditiesprices. nomic growth. Should a more hostile
Themostlikelyscenarioforfutureeconomictrendsreflectsacon- economic environment develop, it
tinuationofthetrendsandconditionsoverthepastquartercentu- would follow that demand for many
ry. The alternative scenarios would see a much more severe reces- commodities would decline more
The conference by the industry for the industry
The London Bullion Market
Association
13-14 Basinghall Street
London EC2V 5BQ
t. +44 (0)20 7796 3067
f. +44 (0)20 7796 2112
conference@lbma.org.uk
www.lbma.org.uk
The LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2008
28 – 30 September
After historic highsfor gold and platinum,what doesthe future hold in
Okura Hotel
store for precious metals? How do skyrocketing prices affect the various
Kyoto, Japan
sectors of the market?
For answers to these and other topical questions,mark your diaries for the
ninth annual LBMA Conference,held jointly thisyear with the London
Platinum and Palladium Market.The programme includesa wide-ranging
agenda that addresses the key issues for gold,silver,platinum and
palladium,plusunparalleled opportunitiesfor networking.
There’s a place for all market players at the
LBMA/LPPM Conference – make sure to reserve yours.
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