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LETTER FROM TOKYO
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Reflecting on the changes looming over Japan as it
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Sinopix/R
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faces an uncertain future, Dr Rene Duignan (DBS 94,
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MBS 97) describes the current situation from his
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o
c
ourt
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Tokyo-based vantage point
T has been 11 years since I graduated from UCD with an
I
MBS in International Business and arrived in Tokyo for a
Japanese government PhD scholarship. After several
years of circuitous study in an often hostile environment,
I am now involved in fascinating research as an Asia econ-
omist at a central bank, and as a lecturer in a Tokyo uni-
versity. Although I have an ongoing struggle with the
Japanese language, I am also an occasional media com-
mentator on such diverse issues as healthcare policy, Chinese eco-
nomics and Japanese domestic politics. As chair of a political study
group, meanwhile, I enjoy off-the-record intellectual exchanges
with ministry officials, finance specialists, government think tanks
and various embassies, as we all desperately grapple to predict
Japan’s highly uncertain economic future.
My parents never ask me when am I coming back home to
Rising
Dublin, but rather when they can visit Japan again. They have dis-
covered Tokyo to be a paradise of courtesy and respect, a safe and
peaceful society neither dominated by alcohol nor bristling with
random aggression. They see beautiful parks — full of music, fash-
son
ion and dance, but not a beer can in sight — and coffee shops
packed after midnight, with caffeine and conversation the only
ingredients. Nightmare demographics statistics make young people fatalistic
But Tokyo can be cruel. Karoshi or ‘death through overwork’ is a about whether the pension system will still be solvent for them
word of honour; escaping the office by 9pm is a fantasy for most. anyway. Politicians dutifully drum on about the importance of
Midnight trains are crammed with sleeping salarymen, and maintaining equality in society, just as the middle class fractures
women are often corralled into female-only carriages for their and disintegrates. Bureaucrats myopically man the barricades
own safety. against immigration and inward foreign investment, successfully
With my various jobs, six-day working week and endless streams slowing the rate of decline but also making innovation, creation
of meetings, it seems the Japanese work ethic is infectious, addic- and an economic rebirth impossible.
tive and potentially destructive. Tokyo is ridiculously competitive, Relentless, grinding globalisation is too strong, and nasty cracks
despite the politeness. The Japanese are routinely classified into are appearing in society, which are then devoured and magnified
‘winner tribe’ and ‘loser tribe’, while singles in their early 30s are by an increasingly sensationalist media. Quiet dignity will prevail,
scorned, even in the media, as ‘loser dogs’. The latest generation however: the J-pop hip-hop music will keep playing as a
include ‘freeters’ — highly educated but opt-out part-time workers Welshman runs Sony, a Lebanese native leads Nissan and more
— and ‘otaku’, who live in an introverted world of computer games Japanese brands fall under foreign control.
and animation cartoons. Both are the rotten fruit of a complacent Mine is a privileged view, as the sun fades on the Japanese
generation, living off the sacrifice and bemused goodwill of their miracle, just as it begins to shine brightly though the acrid haze
ageing parents. They seem blissfully unaware of the rise of China of Beijing.
and the potential economic devastation on the horizon. Their par-
ents, however, see the future all too clearly. Dr Rene Duignan is Asia-Pacific economist with the Central Bank of
In the past decade, Japan has tumbled from second in the world Italy in Tokyo, and has lectured at Aoyama Gakuin University for sev-
to 18th in terms of per-capita income. The economy is locked in a eral years. He is chair of the Japan in Context Study Group, global
permanent but slow, aching decline. Public debt to gross domestic liaison for the Health Policy Institute Japan and is actively involved in
product has spiralled to 180pc, factories are moving to China the Ireland Japan Chamber of Commerce. Alumni contact most
and the flailing health system is a lightening rod of public welcome to: japanincontext@gmail.com.
discontent.
Last year, the Government admitted to losing the pension Note: The opinions expressed above are solely those of the author and
records of 20 million citizens and is in constant fire-fighting mode. do not represent those of his employers.
UCD BUSINESS CONNECTIONS 41
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