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$70 a barrel to around $65 a barrel. American that cellulosic ethanol will be cost-effective as
farmers are moving away from food crops soon as 2009.
such as soybeans, rice, and sunflowers and are
increasingly growing corn for conversion into From a food versus fuel perspective, biomass
ethanol. Soybean plantings are down 11% and high in cellulose such as grasses can be used
cotton plantings are down by 20.5%, whereas as a source of ethanol, and grasses with
corn plantings are up a whopping 15%. Prices of greater biomass can be grown in many more
oil-producing crops—canola (rapeseed) and palm environments than corn. So switching to
oil, which are used to produce biodiesel—have cellulosic ethanol would open up land all over
also risen and thus have had an upward effect the US that cannot be used for food crops.
on the price of food. This effect was exacerbated Indeed, biomass feedstock is a whole area of
last year by a poor wheat crop in the major research in itself and the conference organisers
wheat-producing countries and overall food set aside a large number of seminars or
prices rose by 10% in 2006. "breakout sessions" dedicated to this subject. As
well as in the US, in Canada and New Zealand,
It is likely that movements in the prices of where there is a huge amount of forestry, a
biofuel crops will, in the short term, increasingly great deal of research is being carried out on
track movements in oil prices. Furthermore, the conversion of wood into ethanol and such a
increased appetites for beef, pork and poultry development—apart from making these countries
in China have pushed up the price of soybeans the Gulf States of alternative fuels—would further
(which are predominantly supplied to the reduce the fuel burden on arable land.
Chinese by Brazil) as they are the ideal animal
feed being high in protein. Taken altogether, Furthermore, the US Department of Energy issued
we can expect there to be greater and greater a white paper in August 2006 (Genomics: GTL
competition for land use between food and fuel. Bioenergy Research Centers), which called for
the use of genomics to understand better the
Corn ethanol is resource intensive and produces function of certain microbes involved in the
only about 20% less carbon than if the breakdown of cellulose into sugars and to change
equivalent energy were produced from oil-based the structure of plants. For example, genetic
gasoline. Added to that, President Hugo Chavez modifications to increase the amount of cellulose
of Venezuela has recently further politicised the and decrease the amount of lignin in a plant
Jens Reise
issue in South America by coming out strongly should result in an increase in the efficiency
Source: Bio
against corn-produced ethanol when resources and productivity of cellulosic ethanol; other
used to grow corn could be used for food. So modifications might allow plants to be grown
what are the alternatives being developed that under adverse conditions that are unsuitable for comprising 10% ethanol mixed with gasoline.
might ease this food/fuel conflict and produce food crops. However, only specially designed flexible-fuel
more sustainable biofuels? vehicles (FFVs) can safely run on mixtures that
Looking further into the future, butanol, another contain more than 10% ethanol. Furthermore,
The next generation biomass-derived fermentation product, looks to special pumps in petrol or gas stations will also
Keynote speakers Jens Reise of McKinsey, be a promising fuel as it produces more energy have to be installed to safely deliver the fuel.
who might be described as the darling of the per litre when burned with respect to ethanol. It seems that it will be left to the market to
biotechnology congress as he has appeared implement these changes, so it will only happen
so often, and venture capitalist Vinod Kholsa Although I have barely scratched the surface, if there is a demand for ethanol because it's
gave presentations that looked to the future of it's clear that a great deal of money, research cheaper than gasoline. Brazil was cited as an
biofuels. Interestingly, hydrogen was rejected and effort is being poured into developing example of how a change in infrastructure can
by both speakers as a viable alternative to oil, sustainable biofuels. However, none of this be implemented successfully. However, it should
presumably because the changes in infrastructure technology will be relevant if the corresponding also be noted that Brazil's oil consumption is only
to switch to a hydrogen economy would be too infrastructure isn't put into place. 3% of that in the US.
costly compared with the alternatives that are
being developed. Biodiesel, which has so far Infrastructure Outlook
been the favourite of the Europeans, was also The closing session of the conference began with Although the promise of cleaner greener fuels
not considered a global alternative to gasoline a speech from Alexander Karsner, US Assistant appears like an ear of succulent corn dangling
owing to its problems of scalability, quality and Secretary of Energy, setting out the Bush just out of reach as we hunger for new
sustainability. The front runner by some distance Administration's initiatives to spur commercial technologies, in the short-to-medium term, food
in the race to be the next generation of biofuels development of cellulosic ethanol. The panel and fuel prices are likely to go up. But the future
is cellulosic ethanol (cellulose is broken down discussion that followed included representatives is bright, the future is green, and the future is
into sugars by using enzymes, and the sugars are from Chevron and General Motors. Currently, ethanol; so as one delegate put it, let's
then fermented into ethanol) and Kholsa predicts most gasoline cars will run on E10, a fuel drink the best and burn the rest.
www.agrowmag.com • May 2007 35
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